The 'Blue Wave', and Democrats' Midterm Potential
The USA is going through a blue wave, as we clearly saw in the elections that occurred early November, but what exactly can this signal towards the GOP representatives that are facing reelection, and should Trump’s administration worry? The United States is one year away from a midterm election season, with the Democrats seeking to retake the House and solidify Trump as a “sitting duck” president. The recent state elections showed what American voters are most concerned about, the rising costs living. This is a point that all Democrat candidates exceptionally focused on throughout their campaigns. It seems as if Democrats are beginning to work together as a group on shared values, something which many voters doubted as the party has been plagued with mass levels of internal division. The internal division has posed a serious challenge for the Democratic Party as it is yet to prove that they truly understand the reality of life for the average American.
In New York, Zohran Mamdani won the grand majority votes with the largest turnout since 1969, of 2 million voters showing up for an upset election against previous governor Cuomo. This election is not an outlier, however, with the New Jersey and Virginia elections demonstrating similar numbers, with locations such as Falls Church, Virginia outpacing the past presidential election. When asked by reporters of possible reasons for this mass turn out, Democrat Senator Mark Warner accredited the cuts from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) as having a big impact on voters from Northern Virginia. Voters in areas heavily impacted by DOGE cuts, international tariffs and the government shut down have utilized the recent elections to make their own statement towards the government, as they grow increasingly more displeased with the administration´s policies.
While the New York mayoral elections and New Jersey and Virginian gubernatorial elections were not the only ones that pushed the ¨ blue wave¨ across the country, they have provoked a large amount of backlash from GOP representatives, including from Texas senator Ted Cruz. In his statements, Senator Cruz warned of the left showing up in big numbers whereas “common sense conservatives did not.” This warning was meant to tell voters and campaigning members of his party to show up in the following elections, as growing complacence on previous numbers would ensure another Democrat sweep in November 2026. Polls have shown gradual increases in the voting margin, with some numbers displaying a positive fourteen point margin towards Democratic candidates in the November 2026 elections.
Currently the Trump administration is being harmed by its inability to cut down prices, with many economic policies increasing the national inflation rate. Increases of international goods as a result of the mass tariff policies that Trump imposed on the majority of nations have begun to fall on the American public, with a recent survey stating that about 74% of respondents had experienced an average increase of household costs by at least one hundred USD. While many within the GOP and the current administration have attempted to claim that the prices of goods have decreased, the candidates that were elected talked about the exact opposite, instead choosing to concentrate on economic policies that would make the average cost of living for those within their communities decrease. While the campaigns had little else in common, with both gubernatorial candidates running on a moderate-ideological platform and Mamdani running as a democratic socialist, they both made it very clear where they stood on issues surrounding the economy. In an interview with CNN, New Jersey’s Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill, talked about the surges in electricity pricing in New Jersey, one of the most pertinent issues that she has been presented with by her voters, to which she states that she will “ quickly move to address those key issues” while also “ pushing back against these economic hits that we’re seeing coming from Washington.” Statements like this have presented a growing understanding on the side of the Democrats on the importance that voters see in pushing back against policies that are not working within their communities.
Growing push back against the Trump administration has also been seen by Democrats on the opposite coast with California holding elections on Proposition 50, which comes in lieu of Texan Republicans redrawing of their state electoral map. The proposition 50 ballot passed with an overwhelming majority and gives the Newsom administration, which has been at the head of calling out the federal government on a lot of their more controversial actions, the green light to conduct a mid-decade redistribution of electoral maps. The exact effects of the redrawing is yet to be seen, as both states face Congressional elections in the upcoming year, but there are many that predict that Proposition 50 could give Californian Democrats up to 5 more Congressional seats, which counteracts the possible increase in Republican seats that are drawn up through the Texan redrawing.
The past elections are a demonstration of how Democrat candidates are capable of leading successful campaigns by listening to the issues that their constituents find most important and by demonstrating an interest in pushing back to the Trump administration. What we are yet to see is it the sweeping “blue wave” will continue in November 2026 or if these were a one-time success story.
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The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
