A Case for “Project Hellscape”
China has been ambitious in furthering its influence within the West Pacific, strengthening its maritime and missile capabilities to increase the United States’ cost of challenging a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USIPC), America’s Indo-Pacific regional command center, has predicted that China would be militarily capable of invading Taiwan by 2027. Considering China’s rapid armament production, and the United States’ industrial might in tatters, the U.S must be innovative in its strategic posture within the West Pacific to preserve its vital interests in this much contested area. USIPC’s “Replicator I” initiative, the United States’ project to turn the West-Pacific into a “Hellscape” of unmanned platforms, is needed to revolutionize American force posture in the West-Pacific.
The United States’ security establishment views China’s focus on military mass as a critical advantage it has over the United States during a potential conflict. The Defense Department has launched the Replicator I initiative to create cheap drones across the air, sea, and land, in the multiple thousands within the next two years. Such a program will be instrumental in countering China, a state which would spread out many targets across a vast geographic space. According to some experts, the drones would satisfy a quota of 1,000 targets for 24 hours.
USIPC’s Hellscape concept will feature unmanned systems in every domain, featuring High-Altitude Long Endurance UAVs (U.S. Navy’s MQ-4C Triton patrol aircraft), to one-way attack unmanned surface vessels (USVs) like the Muskie M18 developed by MARTAC. USIPC is also expanding its supply of unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs) with drones such as Leidos’ Sea Darts. The multitude of unmanned platforms within the Replicator I initiative provides the Pacific fleet greater operational flexibility when countering Chinese threats.
In terms of its operational feasibility, the Hellscape scenario could look like thousands of unmanned systems launched from submarines, surface ships, aircraft, and land-based vehicles dispersed across the West Pacific. The goal of the scenario would be to delay the initial elements of an invading force for a long enough time to allow a major transit of ships, submarines, and aircraft from the United States across the Pacific to form a cohesive fleet to combat China. This initiative rests on the prospect of minimizing potential loss of human life by using UAVs to disrupt and damage China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy as much as possible.
Additionally, the West-Pacific's Hellscape would generally be more cost effective than other alternatives. Take NGAD, the United States’ project to develop a sixth-generation aircraft. Despite touting its impressive range and stealth capabilities, the completion of NGAD is projected to be completed by 2028, barring any delays. Furthermore, even with the completion of a sixth-generation aircraft fighter, its survivability would be severely questioned in an era where FPV drones can down a fighter plane (Ukraine’s endeavors against Russia, for example).
In favor of Hellscape, Taiwan need not blot out the sun with drones to delay Chinese advancements by a month. Rather, the unmanned drones would only have to retain the ability to destroy enough invading ships to increase the costs of an invasion. In this scenario, the drones would be readily deployable and expendable, which cannot be said for legacy systems and newly developed air platforms.
However, unmanned systems are critically underfunded within the United States’ defense budget. Although the Big Beautiful Bill Act appropriated $450 million and $145 million to USV/UUVs and UAVs respectively, it allocated only $29 billion to shipbuilding. Although seemingly significant, such funds will develop thousands of unmanned drones, yet unmanned systems are frequently destroyed as evident in 2023 when Ukraine was losing as many as 10,000 drone per month in its conflict with Russia.
Furthermore, it is essential to consider of Chinese counter measures to Replicator I. For instance, unmanned vehicles are inherently vulnerable to cyberattacks, especially with an adversary such as China, widely reputed to have superior offensive cyber capabilities. The PRC also incorporate economic espionage against the United States, allowing them secure access to sensitive technologies and systems, such as military jamming equipment, and naval/marine technologies. Therefore, new innovations in unmanned technologies must be heavily protected to maintain a capacity gap with China.
Considering the risks, it is imperative that the Department of Defense be aggressive with deploying unmanned vehicles, taking advantage of the autonomous and low-cost nature of Replicator I. An increase of $2 billion to Replicator I’s budget would be necessary to promote U.S. operational needs during a potential conflict within the west-Pacific, such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
To mitigate the lack of drone inventory and to prevent sabotage, the Department of Defense should invest in stockpiles of radio and GPS jammers that complement the drones and antiship missiles that Taiwan is already assembling. If done effectively, the sensors and jammers would be instrumental in protecting and facilitating Hellscape’s drone swarms.
With China amassing an ever-expanding military, the threat of the PRC invading Taiwan has never been greater. Therefore, it is imperative that the United States invest resources into a more technologically flexible pacific fleet. With USIPC’s strategy of creating a Hellscape within the West-Pacific, the United States would further develop its force posture within the region, establishing greater deterrence and advantage over a U.S.-China conflict in the West-Pacific.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
Image courtesy of Chad Slattery via Wikimedia © 2013. Some rights reserved
