Nicaragua’s House of Cards: The Ortega-Murillo Power Couple
In 21st-century Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega and his wife, Rosario Murillo, do not merely rule, they co-preside. Their regime is not just an autocracy but a political house of cards: outwardly rigid and intricately constructed yet destined to collapse under its own weight. Unlike the fictional Underwoods in House of Cards, their power play is no Netflix drama.
Ortega was once a revolutionary icon. He helped overthrow the Somoza dictatorship in 1979 and came to embody Sandinista hope. But over decades in power, that hope has twisted into a tightly controlled personalist regime. As Gioconda Belli argued in Foreign Affairs, Ortega and Murillo abandoned all pretense of democratic tolerance with the brutal suppression of the 2018 protests. That suppression was much more than a crackdown. It was the moment when the couple’s facade of legitimacy cracked and their authoritarian core was more evident than ever. Protesters were killed, detained, tortured, and exiled. As Amnesty International documents, the regime weaponizes the justice system, using criminal prosecutions to silence dissent.
If Frank and Claire Underwood’s partnership in House of Cards is built on manipulation, ambition, and secrecy, Ortega and Murillo’s is its real-life replication. Murillo, formally vice president and often called “co-president,” exerts strong influence across the state apparatus. This is not just as a figurehead. She has gained control of once-distinct institutions, purged courts, and reshuffled the judiciary to consolidate her power. This centralized model reflects a disturbing dynastic ambition as reports suggest their son, Laureano Ortega Murillo, has been groomed to succeed them. In House of Cards, the Underwoods rely on compromise, betrayal, and calculated alliances. In Managua, the Ortega-Murillo alliance is cemented via constitutional reform, paramilitary expansion, and institutional capture.
One of the most chilling parallels with House of Cards is the use of non-state (or semi-state) security forces. This is essentially a shadow army that ensures loyalty outside formal democratic mechanisms. In Nicaragua, electoral reforms and a revised constitution legalized a “volunteer police” force that operates in close coordination with the army. These paramilitaries were deployed during the 2018 repression. Now, their status is more permanent. Their existence blurs the lines between party and state. Just as the Underwoods manipulate every lever of power in Washington, Ortega and Murillo have hollowed out existing institutions. The judiciary, legislature, and electoral bodies are no longer independent. Instead, they are channels of the couple’s will. Chatham House analysts argue Nicaragua has moved beyond conventional authoritarianism to something more totalitarian. Critics highlight the regime’s systematic revocation of citizenship as opponents, journalists, and dissidents are stripped of nationality and sometimes even exiled. The line between “enemy of the state” and “stateless person” is being dissolved by the regime.
Yet, the very structure that appears so solid may also be its vulnerability. The House of Cards in Managua is built on repression, personalized power, and constitutional engineering. These systems have always been brittle. They rely on constant suppression and effort. This leads to vulnerability in the face of economic crises, leadership transitions, and defections. However, it is not just the fragility that is worrying. The violence that is rooted in the core of the regime is dangerous for any improvement in Nicaragua’s leadership. The 2018 massacre, the paramilitary forces, the denationalization of opponents were all deliberate strategies to maintain and strengthen control. In House of Cards, Frank Underwood is driven by ego, vengeance, and ambition. Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo are now motivated by survival. Their regime is a long-term strategy. Understanding Nicaragua’s power structure requires analysing the emotional and institutional mechanisms at play. The charisma of leaders, the denials, the secrecy are all integral parts of the fragile leadership. With little international involvement, they will continue to govern like authors of their own fantasy.
Image courtesy of the Taiwan Presidential Office via Wikimedia Commons, ©2017. Some rights reserved.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
