From Headbanger to Hardliner: Japan’s “Heavy Metal” Prime Minister and the Return of Iron Lady Politics
A fan of Margaret Thatcher and heavy metal, Japan has just elected their very own Iron Lady, Sanae Takaichi. The first female Prime Minister, she will be the third Japanese Prime Minister in three years. Takaichi will have to contend with a rising cost of living, political distrust, growing regional insecurity in the Indo-Pacific, and improving US-Japan relations. But who is Takaichi, and what kind of foreign policy can we expect from her?
A Hawk:
Takaichi has a reputation to maintain, one of a hardline conservative and hawk. One of the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) most hardline conservatives, she wants to leave Japan's pacifism in the past. Like her political mentor Abe, Takaichi believes Japan must take greater responsibility for its own defence and regional security, continuing his desire to reform the Japanese constitution.
Article 9 of the Constitution has long been a hurdle to nationalists in Japan. It renounces the ability to declare war, but enables them to act in defence of their nation. The Article enabled them to create the Self Defence Force (SDF), which has participated chiefly in responding to natural disasters and peacekeeping for much of its existence. Abe successfully reinterpreted the constitution to expand the definition of self-defence, including coming to the defence of their allies and expanding the SDF’s right to use weapons during peacekeeping operations. Takaichi seeks to continue Abe’s belligerent constitution revisionism, legitimising a more aggressive and proactive military posture. This change would be significant; Japan could take a more assertive role in the South China Sea, enabled by constitutional reform. Consequently, tensions with China are likely to increase.
Her election victory already seemingly strained relations with Xi Jinping refusing to congratulate her on her win (breaking with precedent), signalling that Japan’s and China’s relationship will only get frostier. As the chill between Tokyo and Beijing is set to deepen, and nowhere will the temperature drop faster than over Taiwanese sovereignty.
Takaichi has consistently advocated for closer cooperation between Japan and Taiwan, urging Tokyo to include Taipei in regional security discussions and strengthen defence ties with partners such as the Philippines and Europe. She has repeatedly described a Taiwan crisis as a direct threat to Japan’s security, even suggesting that Japanese forces could intervene or carry out pre-emptive strikes to deter Chinese aggression. In contrast to China, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te congratulated her on her victory, calling for their relationship to reach a new level to achieve security and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. She met with the president in April, where she agreed that Japan and Taiwan should communicate closely, including the sharing of defence-related information. This growing alignment between Tokyo and Taipei underscores Japan’s shifting strategic posture, one that prioritises deterrence and regional partnerships, yet it risks further straining already tense relations with China.
Meeting with Donald Trump just a week after becoming prime minister, Takaichi has reaffirmed that the U.S.–Japan alliance will remain a core pillar of her foreign policy. Moving beyond what some saw as just a symbolic alignment, towards a deeper operational cooperation. Her agenda includes accelerating Japan’s defence spending target to 2% of GDP by March 2026, strengthening counterstrike capabilities, and expanding joint U.S.–Japan operations, particularly in response to potential crises over Taiwan. Her push reflects growing concern within Japan’s ruling party that Washington’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific may be wavering, prompting Tokyo to assume a more proactive and self-reliant security posture.
Takaichi's hawkish foreign policy carries significant risks for Japan's regional standing. Closer ties with Taiwan and plans to expand Japan's military could provoke China and strain relations with South Korea, which remains wary of regional militarisation. Such moves also risk sparking an arms race in the region, heightening the potential for miscalculation. While deterrence is a key pillar of her strategy, maintaining diplomatic channels remains essential to prevent escalation. Just like with her economic policy, she must balance on a tightrope to achieve her policy aims while not weakening Japan's position and relationships.
A pupil of Abenomics:
Japan is facing numerous economic challenges that will likely affect its trade and international economic policy. One of the most significant is the rise in consumer prices. Japan's wages have remained largely stagnant, only surpassing their 1997 average level for the first time in 2024. However, Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy has kept the yen weak against the dollar to drive investment and tourism, intensifying inflation and increasing the cost of living as the country imports much of its food and energy.
Japan is also struggling on the export front. While the country appears to be weathering the storm, exports to the United States plunged by 13.3%. Japan has long relied on the American market, but this dependence now looks increasingly risky.
Shinzo Abe’s economic policy, widely known as Abenomics, is likely to have a significant influence; his strategy of high levels of fiscal stimulus, ambitious monetary easing and structural reforms aimed to help lift Japan out of its economic stagnation.
A protégé of Abe, her agenda builds on his Abenomics legacy but shifts the focus from prosperity to resilience. If Abenomics sought to make Japan richer, Takaichi's vision is to strengthen it. Takaichi has championed a “responsible and proactive” fiscal policy to strengthen Japan in the face of rising prices and sluggish wage growth. Takaichi’s administration plans to abolish the provisional gasoline tax rate to counteract inflation.
Takaichi’s economic strategy also emphasises national security as a pillar of financial resilience and strength, advocating for more self-reliance, especially on critical industries such as energy, making Japan less reliant on foreign markets, especially China. Japan and China have long been economic partners, investing in Chinese markets in the 70s. Japan has found China to be a reliable consumer of their cars, while relying on China for intermediate goods, such as electronic components, textiles, and rare earth materials. However, Takaichi, a critic of China, will in all likelihood move away from this relationship.
The U.S. is no longer the trade partner it once was: tariffs remain at 15%, only reduced from 25% after Japan pledged $550 billion in investments. But Japan faces mounting competition from China, which is rapidly expanding its dominance in electric vehicles, semiconductors, and other advanced technologies. By diverting capital toward U.S. projects, Tokyo risks undermining its own industrial bases at a time when regional economic resilience is crucial. While the investments may help ease trade tensions with Washington, they could leave Japan less equipped to compete with China long-term. The challenge for Takaichi will not only be maintaining economic security but also navigating Japan’s increasingly delicate position between its two largest trading partners. Balancing political alignment with the U.S. against the economic necessity of stable relations with China will be one of her biggest tests.
However, despite this concern for economic security, she is also a strong supporter of open and liberalised trade. Wanting to expand the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a free trade agreement in the Asia-Pacific region, and form an economic partnership with the European Union. Her challenge will be to advance both security and openness, without compromising either.
Takaichi’s economic policy seems more like an evolution of Abenomics than merely copying her mentor. While Abenomics aimed to make Japan wealthier through growth, Takaichi's agenda is to strengthen Japan's precarious economy. She will have to walk a tightrope of moving Japan to be more self-reliant while championing open trade. Globally, her government will likely pursue greater economic independence by gradually decoupling from China and strengthening ties with trusted partners in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
Despite being Japan’s first female prime minister, Takaichi may ultimately represent a continuation of the status quo: rising militarisation and the persistence of Abenomics. Her rise also fits a familiar global pattern, the first women to reach the top often do so from the right. Takaichi has built her career championing Japan’s more traditional, nationalist stances, not challenging them.
Yet she governs at a critical juncture, with relations with the U.S. increasingly fraught, China’s assertiveness intensifying, and regional security and economic challenges mounting. How she navigates these issues will not just be the key test to her leadership but will define not only her legacy but also Japan’s trajectory in the Indo-Pacific for years to come.
Image courtesy of the Japanese Cabinet Public Affairs Office via Wikimedia, ©2025. Some rights reserved.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
