15 years of Merkel. Who’s up next?

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2021 will be an important year for Germany’s politics with a Federal election currently scheduled for the autumn. Since 2005, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has led the country with a clear vision and subtle confidence that has maintained her popularity throughout most of her tenure. With a public career spanning 15 years as a symbol of stability, how did she come to the post and who might succeed her? 

Merkel made her start in politics after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Joining the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in 1990, she became the youngest member of former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl’s cabinet by 1991 as Minister for Women and Youth. She steadily moved up the ranks becoming German Environment Minister in 1994 and leader of the CDU by 2000. She is the first ‘Ossi’ (colloquial term for Germans from former East Germany) to lead the country as well as being the first woman at the helm. Currently serving her 4th term in office, Merkel has led Germany in dealings with three different American Presidents and five British Prime Ministers. 

With a background in Physics from the Karl Marx University in Leipzig and a PhD in Chemistry from the German Academy of Sciences at Berlin, some have found Merkel’s almost scientific style of governing to be uncharismatic but her deft handling of so many major crises is a testament to her calm and unflappable character. Fixing her hands together into the Merkel-Raute (Merkel diamond)- a method that apparently calms her nerves - quiet pragmatism and ability to dissect problems with surgical accuracy has established Germany, for many other European countries, as the country to look to for economic and political guidance in recent years. 

From her first term in office, she has been moving her conservative bloc (the united CDU and its sister party Christian Social Union, CSU) steadily towards the centre. Merkel has repeatedly shown that she is willing to listen to public opinion even if sometimes that meant going against her bloc’s conservative position. In 2015, her more liberal policies on immigration saw mixed public opinion as she welcomed over 1 million asylum seekers, fleeing conflicts in Northern Africa and the Middle East. Her statement: “Wir schaffen dass” (we can do this) has made a lasting impact and studies by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) have found that, five years on, Germany is on the way to success even if there is still a lot of work to be done. 

At first many praised Merkel’s humanitarian nature. However, after the mass sexual assault at New Year’s Eve celebrations in Cologne and other German cities, the far-right party, Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) pounced on the growing distrust and uncertainty surrounding immigration and by 2018 over 1.5 million voters switched their support from Merkel to support AfD. Critics say that by taking her bloc too far into the centre, she made room for AfD to move in to claim the right. 

This year, Merkel’s approval ratings have soared once more thanks to her proactive and honest approach to the coronavirus pandemic but with her departure drawing near, and political extremists ready to strike, many are wondering how the country is likely to change in the coming years. 

So who might replace her? 

The next centre-right candidate to be German chancellor, does not have to come from Merkel’s party. There are a number of possible successors hoping to fill her shoes next year. 

The obvious choice might have been Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer – widely known as AKK - who stepped up to take Merkel’s place as leader of the CDU in 2018. Her close alignment with the Chancellor had seen AKK dubbed a ‘mini-Merkel’ but she fell at the first hurdle earlier this year as she failed to rein in regional CDU legislators in the eastern state of Thuringia, from working with AfD. By February 2020, AKK announced her resignation, opening up the race for Chancellor once again.

Most popular by far in recent weeks is Markus Söder, Bavaria’s state premier and current head of CSU. Söder has not yet officially put his hat in the ring to run for leader of the CDU but he has seen a steady increase in popularity and the former journalist knows how to work a crowd, making him a viable candidate to follow Merkel. He has led the centre-right attacks on AfD and condemned both left and right-wing extremists. Despite Bavaria suffering considerably from the impact of coronavirus, his quick decisions in dealing with the pandemic have left his possible rivals trailing behind him. 

Before the pandemic, North Rhine-Westphalia state premier and staunch supporter of Merkel, Armin Laschet seemed to have the upper hand. However, his handling of the crisis has raised questions about his judgement. He was reluctant to impose restrictions on the population and was one of the first to call for lifting of the measures once he eventually followed the lead of other states.  

Other politicians keen to step up are corporate lawyer and former leader of the CDU group who had stepped away from front-line politics, Friedrich Merz and Norbert Röttgen, who chairs parliament’s foreign affairs committee, but they have not proved to be very popular.  

Another possibility is Olaf Scholz from the Social Democratic Party (SPD). The no-nonsense finance minister and deputy chancellor in Merkel’s coalition could possibly win back votes lost in recent years to the Greens and AfD but this will most likely be an uphill battle as many doubt the 62-year-old’s chances of energizing party activists. After 8 years in coalition under Merkel, however, the SPD may relish a spell in opposition. 

Next year, the likeliest outcome looks to be a CDU/CSU-Green coalition, with the Greens already governing in more than half of Germany’s 16 states and steadily gaining popularity. In recent polls, the Greens have been forecast for around 20% in the Federal elections and for the party’s co-leaders - Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock -  both look likely to be in with a chance of becoming Germany’s next Chancellor, if they feel up for the challenge. 

The decision next year will not just impact Germany but also Europe as a whole as Merkel has been at the forefront of European politics for years. Merkel has widely been described as the de facto leader of the European Union throughout her tenure as Chancellor and she has been named the world’s most powerful woman nine times by Forbes magazine. It goes without saying that the next Chancellor will have big shoes to fill and will undeniably face comparison to the legacy of mighty Merkel.