Recent Violence in Israel and Palestine – What Is The Outlook?
Only a few weeks ago, tensions were nearing a boiling point in Israel and Palestine. The world was waiting to see if the situation would escalate, sparking a third intifada, or Palestinian uprising. While the situation appears to have mostly settled back down, recent actions by Israel could threaten this state of semi-stability once again. These recent tensions have impacts on Israel and Palestine and the broader Middle East region, but most importantly show a trend for the Israel-Palestine conflict in the coming years.
The most recent spark in the conflict occurred when the Israeli military carried out a raid on the Jenin refugee camp in the occupied West Bank on January 26th of this year. The raid killed ten Palestinians, including an elderly woman, and twenty other Palestinians were injured. Following the raid, Palestinians accused the Israeli forces of “obstructing ambulances and medics.” The Jenin refugee camp is home to 14,000 Palestinians and has been seen as the ‘hotbed of Palestinian resistance’ by Israeli politicians and forces. The Jenin camp raid represents only one example of Israeli attempts to crack down on Islamic jihadist fighters, with retaliatory violence and more military operations following soon after
Retaliatory violence and more Israeli military operations followed the Jenin raid. On January 27th, the day after the raid, a Palestinian gunman killed seven Israelis outside a synagogue in East Jerusalem in the deadliest terrorist attack of the type in years. On February 6th, the Israeli military carried out another raid on the Aqabet Jabr camp in which five Palestinian men were killed by Israeli forces. This was followed by another Palestinian attack on February 10th, in which two Israelis were killed by a Palestinian driving a car into a crowded bus station. More recently, on February 14th, another Israeli military raid on the Far’a refugee camp, also in the West Bank, killed two Palestinians, including a 17-year-old boy.
Although the violence did not lead to a third intifada, as many observers feared, it nonetheless marks an alarming trend. The first two intifadas, or Palestinian uprisings, lasted for several years (1987-1993 and 2000-2005) and left thousands of people dead, most of whom were Palestinians. Recent polling shows that 61% of Palestinians and 65% of Israeli Jews believe a third intifada will happen soon, and the United Nations Envoy to Jerusalem warned of the conflict nearing “the brink.” More than 170 Palestinians were killed in raids in 2022, and already more than 50 have been killed since 2023 began. Despite some efforts by outside actors to resolve the conflict, though, there does not seem to be much sign of an imminent resolution.
Most current policy on the Israel-Palestine conflict advocates for a two-state solution as the best way bring the conflict to an end. As the name implies, under this plan, both Israel and Palestine would have land for a state for their people. Although the two-state solution is viable in theory and has been advanced by governments, intergovernmental organizations, and non-governmental organizations alike, it runs into several ‘final status’ issues – what should be done about borders? Israeli settlements? Jerusalem, which both Israel and Palestine claim?
However, with the recent spate of violence, the prospect of a two-state solution seems further away. In December 2022, Benjamin Netanyahu was elected Prime Minister of Israel again after forming “the most far-right and religious government in Israel’s history,” which included the Religious Zionism party with ties to West Bank settlers. Although Israeli military raids are nothing new, moves taken by Netanyahu and his coalition are cause for alarm.
After Palestinian attacks on Israelis following the Jenin refugee camp raid, Netanyahu's cabinet legalized nine formerly illegal settlements in the West Bank. These settlements had been built without Israeli government approval and are viewed as violations of international law that further threaten the two-state solution. As more land is integrated into Israeli control through the legalization of settlements, less land is left for Palestinians to form their own state. Other steps taken by Netanyahu’s government include allowing controversial Israeli politicians to visit the Temple Mount, a highly contested site important to both Jews and Muslims, the Israeli government declaring “exclusive” Jewish rights to historical Palestine, and the Israeli National Security Minister announcing a “major enforcement campaign” in contested East Jerusalem. These moves all serve to escalate tensions and increase the risk of violence.
Arab states in the region, which also have tense relations with Israel, have warned Israel about the rising tensions and Israel’s actions that threaten a future peace process. President el-Sisi of Egypt called on the international community to “reinforce the two-state solution.” At the same time, Arab states have begun to form closer ties with Israel, especially through the recent normalization of relations with the Abraham Accords. Although these are important steps for the Middle East, these normalizations threaten to leave Palestinians behind.
Domestic U.S. developments also foreshadow an end to the two-state solution. The two Republican candidates for the 2024 Presidential election so far, Donald Trump and Nikki Haley, are both extremely pro-Israel at the cost of neutrality in the conflict. Other prospective candidates share the same pro-Israel views. If local and regional developments were not concerning enough for the future of a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine, the use of the conflict to score political points should be.
Image courtesy of Michael Künne via Wikimedia, ©2021, some rights reserved.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
