Protests and Unrest in Iran
Following the murder of 22-year-old Jina Mahsa Amini on September 16th in Tehran by the government’s morality police, protests and calls for a revolution have burgeoned throughout Iran and continued for the last four months. While initially led as a call for women’s rights, including the launch of a 1,000,000 signature campaign, the leaderless movement has expanded to call for reform on broader social issues and political rights. The younger generation, in particular, is pushing back against conservative President Ebrahim Raisi’s hard-line approach. Dissent has arisen within the government as the sister of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei spoke publicly against the government’s crackdowns on protesters and called for the Revolutionary Guards to cease fighting. In a letter from her son, she condemned the harsh government crackdowns and stated that she, “...express[es] her sympathy with all mothers mourning the crimes of the Islamic Republic…” The perpetuation of violence has continued with human rights groups counting the deaths of more than 500 people, none of whom the Iranian government has acknowledged. Despite protests, western sanctions, and international condemnation, the Iranian government has initiated trials, executing 4 individuals and giving 17 others the death sentence.
Among those executed by the Iranian government was Alireza Akbari, British-Iranian and former Deputy Minister of Defence of Iran, who was accused of spying in 2019. The Iranian government claimed Akbari was giving information to British intelligence and therefore betraying his country. He was sentenced to death for “harming the country’s internal and external security by passing on intelligence.” The government claimed he had MI-6 training and was attempting to interfere in Iranian intelligence services by forming shell companies and taking rewards from the UK. In response to his trial and execution, British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, called it “a callous and cowardly act carried out by a barbaric regime with no respect for the human rights of their own people.” The Foreign Minister James Cleverly voiced his dissent, branding the execution as a “politically motivated act…” These “sham trials”, as labelled by human rights groups, have caused global attention to Iran’s government and led to an increase in sanctions from the US and Europe.
The US Treasury Department has sanctioned the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), 5 board members, and 4 IRGC commanders. In mid-January, the EU added 37 Iranian officials to their sanctions list and the UK enacted an asset freeze on the Iranian Deputy Prosecutor General Ahmad Fazelian due to the corruption in the judicial system. With the imposed sanctions came condemnation from the Treasury Department, including Brian E. Nelson promising to “...hold the regime accountable so long as it relies upon violence, sham trials, the execution of protesters, and other means…” While extensive, the sanctions did not label the IRGC as a “terrorist organization,” which the Iranian government would have deemed a violation in international law. Human rights groups have critiqued the use of sanctions from the West as failing to address the human rights crisis and requested the need for targeted sanctions. They highlight that enacting change within the Iranian government comes from diplomatic pressure outside the West. As of recently, the Iranian government and state-run IRNA have accused Western countries as the instigators of internal unrest and the cause of the depreciation of the rial.
The rial has fallen to a record low after US abandonment of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal in 2018 and the imposition of extensive sanctions instigating a currency crisis. After the firing of Ali Salehabadi, the former director of the Central Bank of Iran, Governor Mohammad Reza Farzin has attempted to artificially hold the rate of currency at 285,000 rials to the US dollar, despite a 40% inflation rate. While the Central Bank scrambles to raise currency that can be sold to individuals in order to demonstrate the strength of the rial, sanctions and inflation have pushed the Iranian government into a deep financial crisis. It is challenging for the government to devise a five-year budget plan, as the Islamic Republic has done since 1989. To create revenue through oil exports, Iran is trading below market value to Chinese refineries via illegal ship-to-ship transferring to bypass sanction law. However, Russia is also competing for sales to China, creating uncertainty around crude sales and pricing. In combination with the anti government protesting, there has been a rapid increase in capital flight with anti-Islamic Republic proponents calling for citizens to withdraw their money from the banks. The Head of Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture Masoud Khansari has announced the annual loss of capital at $10 billion. Attempts to reconcile the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have failed and western sanctions continue to remain resolute.
The initial goal to reduce or end the “Gasht-e-Ershad” or morality police, established under former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, appears to have made some headway. Larger Iranian cities like Tehran have shown a diminished presence of morality police on the streets. However, Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, the director of an Oslo-based Iranian Human Rights Group, does not view their reduced presence as indicative of true regime change. He believes, “the morality police are just tools for oppressing people in a totalitarian system,” and states that a return of authority to the country “will see all of these oppressive forces come back and maybe even more harshly.” With protests continuing, international condemnation rising, and steadfast western sanctions in place, the pressure for change remains on the Iranian government.
Image courtesy of Thiago Rocha via Unsplash, ©2023, some rights reserved.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
